We stop seeing electricity as a mere commodity. It’s not just about production and consumption. Human behavior must be taken into account. Consider your driving style. Consider ways. Next, consider vagaries of wind and weather.
Now imagine mixing all of these together. What is the balance like? When does wind power actually produce electricity? When do drivers really need it?
If you think about it carefully, you might come to the conclusion that no.
You are right. At least to some extent. The perfect answer is among many variables. It’s possible, but unlikely, that the answer might someday be yes.
Culture change issues
The problem of wind turbines is no longer a problem of supply and demand. Rather, it is about social and cultural changes in habits and ways of thinking.
Going from miles per gallon to kilowatt hours per mile is more than just putting a battery in place of a fuel tank. It’s about changing your driving habits. This is related to travel habits. Even the way we think about work and commuting is changing.
But even if these cultural traditions change, there will still be a shortage of wind power.
Of course, you can also generate the electricity you need. But only if there are enough wind farms. Only if there were enough ways to distribute the power. What if, what if, what if.
The wind is a fickle being. Despite modern forecasting techniques, it is seasonal. Depends on the storm. It is changing and changing. Much more so than human behavior.
Portfolio, Not Panacea
Wind power for cars could become part of the mix of alternative energy sources. This combination could one day replace traditional coal, natural gas and oil power plants.
Learn why wind energy does not power the country’s car fleet. But it can serve as one tool in a larger energy toolbox. That toolbox is waiting to make the United States a greener, more energy efficient country.
The wind is unpredictable
Long before the term “global warming” became a household term, Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Stephen Connors has been following the intersection of alternative energy and conventional power generation. His conclusions about the country’s use of electric cars are mixed. This has nothing to do with geography. It’s about time.
People are concerned about where the electrons come from. They should be asking when the car needs them.
“One of the big problems with electric cars is that people want to charge them at night,” Connors said. This practice fits perfectly with the characteristics of traditional network infrastructure. Most electricity in the United States still comes from steam turbines that burn natural gas, coal, and oil. These plants do not like to sit idle. This is ineffective. So they kept spinning all night. This creates a huge surplus of cheap electricity when demand is lowest. Unless you own an electric car and charge at 2 am. Then, that surplus is your discount.
Wind power doesn’t care about your schedule or the clock in your country. It cares about weather patterns. These can only be predicted to a certain extent. And they rarely correspond to human behavior.
“There is a huge mismatch between the way electric cars are charged and the availability of wind energy,” Connors said.
The seasons don’t match
There isn’t always wind. This is cyclical. The strongest winds hit during winter months. But our charging habits don’t change with the seasons. We plug in the same way in July as we do in January.
There are daily variations in these seasonal trends. These vary by region. One state’s peak wind might be another’s lull. These direct trends determine the actual amount of energy produced. Wind can supplement the network. We cannot be the only supplier of electric vehicles in the whole country.
“This seasonal component doesn’t meet the needs currently,” Connors said.
Can wind power alone sustain electric cars?
If you look at the data, the answer is no. The U.S. electric grid infrastructure is built for baseload electricity, or stable and predictable power. Wind is intermittent. Energy storage technology is still developing, but the huge amounts of energy needed to charge millions of cars at night when the wind is quiet creates a shortage.
Power grids need more than just wind. It needs a mix. Peak natural gas power plants can increase their electricity production when the wind stops. Hydropower could fill this gap. Although solar energy is useful during the day, it does not solve the problem of charging at night.
Connors’ point is simple. We are trying to install a square pin (seasonal, depending on weather) in a round hole (24/7, requires night charging).
Where does the energy come from?
The location matters less than the timing. Texas wind farms may generate excess electricity in March. But if this energy cannot be stored or transported when and where it is needed, it is wasted. The network is a balancing act. Currently, the balance is tipped too far towards traditional sources that operate 24/7.
Wind is part of the solution. It’s not the whole solution.
How Much Wind Do We Actually Need?
The complete replacement of traditional electricity production requires storage solutions that do not yet exist at scale. Batteries are improving. Pumped-storage hydropower plants exist, but they are geographically limited. In the absence of a large storage capacity, wind power is still a supplementary energy source.
The imbalance between electricity production and consumption is a key problem. Electric cars are charged at night. Wind often blows strongest in winter. Summer days are quiet. The grid
Why can’t wind alone move America?
Converting the nation’s fleet to clean wind power is more of a hypothetical theoretical exercise than a logistical plan. The first hurdle? The entire fleet would have to be electric. Even industry leaders like Connors question whether this change will be fully realized by 2050.
But let’s assume it happens. The numbers don’t lie.
Current data shows that Americans use 400 million gallons of gasoline on their daily trips. To reach this range, modern Electric Vehicles require about 40 kilowatt hours (kWh) of energy. This is based on a conservative average of 15 miles per gallon. Terrain, aerodynamics and weight are ignored. The extent of the problem is still clear.
To replace a day’s worth of gasoline, producers would have to produce 16 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity per day. That’s an astronomical number.
Look at it per driver. Vehicles use about 500 gallons a year. At 40 kWh per gallon this equates to 20,000 kWh per year. This covers 10,000 miles of commuting. In 2006, there were 251 million passenger vehicles on US roads. Add this up and you get an incredible total demand.
However, in 2007, total electricity production in the United States exceeded 4 trillion megawatt hours. One megawatt hour corresponds to 1000 kilowatt hours, so the total supply is large. But it’s not all about the wind. Not everything is renewable.
The conclusion is inevitable. Wind turbines alone cannot supply electricity to the country’s electric vehicles. To fill this gap, the electricity grid must include renewable energy.
Where Wind Fits Into the Energy Mix
So if wind can’t do this by itself, what does it actually do? This works as an addition to the base load rather than a stand-alone solution.
Wind farms work best in areas with stable, fast air flow. The Midwest and Texas are the best places. But wind is intermittent. When the wind stops, the car also stops charging.
This is why grid storage and renewable hybrid systems are important. Wind energy must be in balance with solar, water or geothermal energy. Without this diversity, the power grid becomes unstable during quiet winds.
Electric car technology is constantly developing. Battery density continues to increase. The charging infrastructure is expanding. However, the power source is important. Relying on wind power alone ignores the reality of energy production consistency.
The sustainable future of the automotive industry will not be delivered through silver bullets. It comes from a complex and interconnected energy network. Wind is a vital thread in that web. It isn’t the whole tapestry.
Seasonal changes are important. However, wind is still a clean renewable energy source, and there is no need to wait for permits.
There are two main types of turbines. The horizontal axis looks like a giant propeller. They dominate the ads. Vertical axis turbines are different. They resemble modern sculptures. Or a giant egg beater stuck in a field.
Both models use modified airfoils. The wind blew against them. It becomes motive force. The turbine is spinning. Produces electricity.
This power can either supplement the larger electricity grid or be captured and stored.
There is a strange advantage to this math. It’s not linear. When electricity production is linear, one revolution of the generator produces one kilowatt hour. But wind power can reach the third power. With sufficient wind power, it can produce 3 kilowatt hours of power in one revolution. It’s a cubic relationship. More speed, exponentially more power.
Despite these physical advantages, wind farms are still not enough. The number of banks is still relatively small.
MIT energy researcher Stephen Connors believes wind power is just another piece of the puzzle. He doesn’t expect it to handle heavy lifting on its own. This plan includes a much larger package. Geothermal. Hydro. Solar. Biomass.
Nuclear energy is also often added to this list. Carbon free. Fits the profile.
This energy combination must develop with others. electric car. And the technology that supports it. Especially “smart” grids. That grid shunts surplus electricity. Get power where you need it most. Real-time demand calculations guide these changes.
But when will the cars really catch up?
Connors is looking to 2050. At least that’s true. That’s his term for an ideal world. This is his definition of an ideal world. The government’s regulations are consistent. The policy works. Public opinion changes at the same time. The trip to the promised land went smoothly.
“It rarely happens,” he said.
Hybrids are a good case study. The Toyota Prius entered the US market about 10 years ago. This is the first commercially viable option. Now, more than ten years later, they are becoming a common car option.
The auto fleet turns over slowly. It will take 15 to 20 years before China completely abandons the use of old models. Replace it with a new one. Electric vehicles are not yet commercially viable or fully accepted.
2050 is the ideal date. Not likely.
Right now, wind will move more trees than cars. But that could change. In the distant future.
For more information about renewable energy, follow the links on the next page.
Detailed information
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More Great Links
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American Wind Energy Association
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US Department of Energy
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US Energy Information Administration
Sources
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American Wind Energy Association. (23 Jun 2010)http://www.awea.org/
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Connors, Stephen. Professor at MIT. Personal interview. Conducted on Nov. 19, 2009.
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US Department of Energy. (23 Jun 2010)http://www.energy.gov/
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US Energy Information Administration. (23 Jun 2010)http://www.eia.doe.gov/
